This latest book by Vaclav Smil, a distinguished Canadian emeritus scientist at the University of Manitoba, and author of over forty books, is a stern warning and wake-up call to both extreme climate disaster predictors and optimistic climate change remediation advocates. Its main message is that we need to truly understand the extent to which modern life and all of its benefits are predicated on complex systems and materials that are currently impossible to have or maintain without the use and consumption of fossil fuels, in order to have a realistic view of what it will take to solve the problem of human-caused climate change.
It would be easy to misinterpret Smil’s objections to many of the common beliefs about climate change (both fearful and optimistic) held by most of us, based largely on the political statements and mass media reports we all read and hear constantly, as being signs that he is a fossil fuel apologist. That would be a big mistake, because a careful reading of this dense and data-filled book reveals no such thing.
It’s not that he doesn’t agree that we need to act, to try to save the world and its climate from the consequences of our dependence on fossil fuels. Instead, he is arguing strongly that we need to understand just how extraordinarily difficult that process will be in order to have reasonable expectations, and that no outcomes – either extremely positive or negative – can be assumed or confidently predicted based on our current state of knowledge and the existing global political and economic situations.
His chapters lay out his logical and fact-based arguments in a steady, relentless fashion. In chapter 1, he begins with a deep discussion of the history and nature of our energy systems, and how important energy conversion and supplies (from whatever sources) are to the existence of modern society.
In chapter 2, he focuses on explaining food production: both the extent to which modern industrial farming and its output that feeds the world depend on mechanization that currently requires massive fossil fuel inputs, and the additional role of fossil fuel by-products in fertilizer production which makes current global crop yields possible.
In chapter 3, Understanding Our Material World, he suggests that there are four pillars of modern life, supporting the 7+ billion people alive today. In his view, unfortunately well-supported by the facts he presents and by our own knowledge of the world around us, they are: cement, steel, plastics and ammonia. He then explains in detail why these four materials are essential to sustaining life in our advanced economies, and why at this time it is impossible to jump quickly and fully to alternative materials and products derived from non-fossil fuels and carbon-free processes. Moreover, he explores how even trying to move to sustainable energy sources like wind and solar, and producing electric cars, will require massive inputs of these fossil fuel derived materials to get there.
Again, he’s not saying we shouldn’t be trying to do so, and he even explores possible alternatives that have been proposed, or ones that could be envisioned. His point is that it is futile to hope that solutions to replacing all the key requirements for supporting modern life can be imagined, designed and implemented on the massive scale necessary to quickly replace today's sources of these materials – certainly not in the short time frame suggested by those who say “we need to get to net zero carbon by” some near future year ending in a 0 or a 5, as he puts it.
In the remaining four chapters, he tackles and explains other key elements of the climate crisis puzzle that we need to understand: globalization, actual versus perceived risks, what is and is not at risk in the planet's environment, and the difficult nature of attempts to predict and control the future. In each case, he carefully demolishes simplistic popular notions, establishes logical inter-dependencies between important factors and considerations, and provides needed rational perspectives on the complexity of the many challenges to be confronted.
At the end of the book there is a References and Notes section, which contains 70 pages of exhaustive footnotes and citations for each of the chapters and topics covered. These notes alone would be a gold mine for serious climate policy analysts, historians, social theorists and others who want to do a deeper dive into the question of how we got ourselves into this climate change situation as a species.
This book provides much needed history of the fossil fuel era, a sober, clear-eyed and data-based analysis of our modern economy and technology, and a rational discussion of what we can and can’t do to solve the climate crisis, within what likely time periods. It’s not surprising that Bill Gates, whose results-based approach to global health and philanthropy is well-known, cites Smil as his favorite author. Highly recommended.
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