I’ve been waiting for this movie to move to
streaming platforms (to watch it for free), but recently decided that given the
current political environment we’re living in, it might be worth paying more to view
it now. I’m very glad I did, because this is one of the most powerful, disturbing
and relevant films I’ve seen recently.
As you might know, the basic story of this
film is that the United States in the near future has descended into a series
of secession attempts and civil war. A small group of veteran foreign war
correspondents, led by a legendary war photographer (Kirsten Dunst), set out to
travel from New York city to Washington, D.C. by car to try to interview the
President of the United States (Nick Offerman), as the main secessionist army
closes in on the capital.
My off-hand impression is that this movie
hasn’t done very well with the critics, and isn’t that popular with audiences
either. It’s easy to see why, too, because it is horrific, and hard to watch in
many parts due to the violence and brutality it depicts. I don’t typically
want to watch that kind of movie anymore either – I outgrew enjoying watching
violent war movies a long time ago. But in this case, the things that would
otherwise make this film repellent are totally the point. The point it seems to
make is: be careful what you wish for.
The other night, I watched a segment on the
TV news cataloging what MAGA world’s leaders are intending if Donald Trump wins
the 2024 presidential election, less than five months from now. It can be
summarized as this: violent revenge, vindictive prosecution, and murder and
mayhem against leaders and well-known figures in every influential segment of
our society, including the legislative, judicial and administrative branches of government, law enforcement,
entertainment, health care, the news media and academia.
Trump himself has made these kinds of threats
of terror throughout this campaign. Both he and Steve Bannon unleashed a
torrent of this fascistic vitriol at the Turning Point Action right-wing
convention last weekend. It was clear, hateful, explicit, and terrifying, and
we know by now that when they say things like this, they really mean them, and
we must take them seriously.
I also heard last week that the same
right-wing paramilitary groups that brought us the January 6th
uprising in 2021 are organizing for both 2024 election contingencies. If Trump wins, they will help the new
administration unleash a reign of terror against their “enemies”, or if Trump
loses, they plan to unleash an armed revolution to make sure he takes power anyway.
They say they want a war, so they can “win”, and put down forever all the
people they hate (meaning the other half of us). As Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito
recently said, he and his far right allies believe that certain core issues can’t be
compromised on; one side or the other must prevail. That is now apparently their goal, to win by whatever means are necessary and available, including violence.
That’s what this movie is really all about. Many critics and viewers have made the reasonable observation that the exact scenario –
in which Texas and California (the ultimate red and blue states) combine forces
against the U.S. government – doesn’t appear to make much sense, in terms of
the political realities and allegiances of those two states as we know them
today. But this criticism in my view misses the point entirely, which is that a civil war in the United States in the early 21st century
would not necessarily unfold along neat or predictable lines.
Indeed, war does make strange bedfellows,
one of the obvious points of this film’s message. It might not be Texas and California leading the charge for insurrection, but it might be some other surprising combination of states or regions. Another important takeaway is
the reminder that a plan of battle never survives first contact with the enemy.
If you’re eager for civil war, you might think you know how it’s going to turn
out, but you don’t. In fact, you don’t have a clue – we found that out the last
time. This movie drives home that point, very clearly.
I saw a number of other similarly important
points raised in this film that have not usually been considered in most of the
journalistic and academic discussions of possible civil war that I’ve read over
the past couple of years. I believe the people who made this film did a
fantastic job of thinking outside the box in developing their plot, and also in comparing and
contrasting the last American Civil War (1861-1865) with what one might look
like now, in our heavily urbanized 21st century society.
Most analyses I’ve seen of what a
contemporary civil war might look like assume there would be localized civilian
rebellions popping up, with the U.S. government and its professional military
trying to suppress them. The idea of comparably equipped and trained federal forces
and secessionist states' high-tech militaries fighting each other in the streets of our own cities, as is graphically
portrayed in this movie, hasn’t appeared in any discussion of potential modern
civil war I’ve read.
What the modern analysts seem to have
forgotten is that when the Civil War erupted, a sizable portion of the U.S. Army and Navy
essentially defected overnight, taking their leadership, troops, weapons and
facilities to the Confederacy. As was true then, the domestic military
infrastructure of our country is distributed across much of the continent, in red states and blue states (but now with nuclear arsenals too). It’s
not inconceivable that governors might seize control of the forces and
facilities of the U.S. military sited in their states, if they suddenly faced a
hostile federal government they and most of their states’ people couldn’t abide.
It has happened before, here in the United
States and elsewhere. When the Soviet Union fell apart in the 1990s, Ukraine
ended up with a large portion of the Soviet Union’s military assets, including
a nuclear arsenal which it foolishly gave back to Russia. States today might not
make that same mistake, given what has happened to Ukraine more recently.
Potential MAGA rebels who dream of a 3%
uprising by their militias, or maybe even the takeover of the U.S. military by
their Dear Leader if he is re-elected, might want to consider the possibility that no matter
which side shoots first, or claims dominance and control, it’s unlikely
everyone across this country is going to go along quietly and passively with
plans for an authoritarian regime. And there is plenty of knowledge, experience
and access to the resources for war on both sides of our great political divide,
as much as they might doubt that.
This movie captures that scenario – not
just Texas and California, but other states too respond to the destabilization
of the country by using their own local militaries (which in real life could be
federal troops in their states, and/or national guard units), along with civilian
paramilitaries, to set their own courses to independence. This inevitably leads to a general
breakdown of civil order everywhere, and a free-for-all that visually resembles
nothing so much as the many foreign hellscapes we’ve witnessed abroad in our
lifetimes, in places like Lebanon, Kosovo, Chechnya,
Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and Syria.
It's not just high-tech urban warfare
between two modern hyper-equipped armies in this movie, either. The movie (and
basic common sense) suggests it wouldn’t be anywhere near that simple here, because
in the meantime, we have this other little national problem (or feature, as
some might call it), a heavily-armed civilian population. This movie shows us how
that aspect might play out, in all sorts of familiar yet defaced American landscapes: bucolic rural areas, burned-out suburban
shopping malls and devastated major cities.
I won’t spoil the impact of all the
different situations our embattled journalists encounter by describing
them here. Suffice it to say, I found them horrible to contemplate. Just
imagine a “war of all against all” in America, a Hobbesian state where any idiot with an
AR-15 and a box of ammunition can become godlike in their power to terrorize
and kill anyone they don’t like.
Imagine what the polarization of our
current toxic political environment might engender in a nation where all our trusted
guardrails for ensuring civil order, decency to our fellow citizens, democratic
self-government and stability have been removed, keeping also in mind the
personal arsenals available to civilians and in play here.
I would guess many people who might see
this movie would react by denying it could ever get this bad. And they are probably right – I certainly hope so. But I do have concerns about this common optimistic
reaction to what lies ahead, for the following reason.
Since 2016 we’ve seen a continuously
streaming news feed of shocking, unexpected and unprecedented events in our country and our political life. Many
of these events seem to lie far outside the mainstream of our history as a
democracy, and our longstanding political norms. It happens so often now, many of us have become
numb to it. I really want to scream every time I hear one more TV news host say
“we’re in uncharted territory here”. Do ya think? So given this unstable state
of affairs, what puts all-out civil war of the kind we’ve seen elsewhere around
the world out of the realm of possibility?
I read a great book recently, The Demon
of Unrest, Erik Larson’s new history of the lead-up to the first shots of
the Civil War at Fort Sumter. One of the points he captured brilliantly in the
book was the extent to which neither side – North or South – had very much
insight into the mental state of their opponent. For that reason, both sides were
dumbfounded when the shooting began. But the point is, these misunderstandings
do happen sometimes in human history. And they could happen here and now too,
even if we don’t want to believe that.
Anyone who has studied the history of the
major wars in the last two centuries knows there is also a consistent theme running through many of them.
When these wars began, one or both sides looked forward to a fast, easy and total
victory. One or both sides believed their forces would be overwhelmingly
superior, and would cover themselves in glory, while quickly vanquishing the
hated and obviously inferior foe. It happened in the American Civil War, in
Europe at the start of World War I, in Germany in World War II, and most
recently in Iraq, Afghanistan and Ukraine. It happens over and over throughout history, whenever the
desire for glory, revenge and conquest leads to a mass delusion that a war will
not exact a terrible price on all the participants, but only on the other side.
The end result of each of those conflicts
was disaster, mayhem, chaos and barbarism on a grand scale. Even where there
were victors, the victories came at terrible costs in lost lives, destroyed
societies, and ongoing political challenges, created by the unresolved hatreds
and problems that continued to be passed down through succeeding generations. We
know this is true, because in a very real way, we’re still paying as a society for the
mistakes of the Civil War and the Reconstruction era, more than 150 years
later. Indeed, some of the same issues and pathologies from that time are at
the heart of our current crisis.
So for those in the MAGA world who see
opportunities for glory and revenge right ahead in the near future, through imagined
martial feats, glorious revolution and acts of vengeance, they might want to watch this
movie, and think once more about where all this might be headed. The rest of us
should see the movie too, to challenge our complacent preconceptions about just
how limited a modern civil war or insurrection might remain, and to consider some worst case
scenarios for the months ahead.
Be careful what you wish for, and remember,
the enemy always gets a vote. But in the end, everyone loses.
Civil War (the movie). Very highly
recommended.